Flattening is the whole signal
There is one question a retention curve answers: does it flatten, or does it head to zero? A curve that flattens means some group of users found something they keep coming back for. A curve that keeps falling means people try the product and leave, however good the early numbers look.
This matters more than the absolute level. A curve that stabilises at 25% is a better business than one that starts at 70% and is still falling at month six, because the first has a floor and the second does not.
Reading your own curve
- Month 1 above 60% is a reasonable B2B SaaS starting point.
- Month 3 above 45% suggests onboarding is doing its job.
- By month 6 the month-over-month drop should be small — under about 1.5 points — for the curve to count as flattening.
The tool flags flattening when the average drop across the last three months falls below 1.5 percentage points, then projects six months forward at the current rate so you can see where the trajectory ends up.
If it is not flattening
Segment before you conclude. Very often the blended curve hides one segment that retains beautifully and another that never activates. Splitting by acquisition channel, company size, or use case usually reveals which. Narrowing the ICP to the segment that already retains is faster than making the product fit everyone.
Questions
What data goes in?
The percentage of a single cohort still active in each subsequent month, starting at 100 for month 0. If you track weekly, the same logic applies — just read the month labels as weeks.
How many months do I need?
At least three to see a shape, and ideally six or more. Flattening is rarely visible before month four.
Should I use logo retention or usage retention?
Usage retention is the more honest early signal, because paid contracts can mask disengagement until renewal. If you have both, look at usage.
My curve flattens at 15% — is that fit?
It is fit for a narrow segment. The product genuinely works for someone; the question is whether that group is large enough to build on, and whether your marketing is currently aimed at them.