From a goal to a schedule
"We want to get to $5M" is not a plan. The plan is the monthly compounding rate that goal implies, and the quarterly checkpoints that tell you early whether you are off it.
The maths is rate = (target ÷ current)^(1 ÷ months), 1. This is compounding, not linear: growing from $500K to $5M in 24 months requires about 10% a month, which is very different from the "roughly $190K a month" a linear reading suggests.
Reading the required rate honestly
- Under 5% monthly, achievable with one working channel.
- 5-10% monthly, a strong Series A trajectory. Needs more than one channel.
- 10-15% monthly, top decile, and rarely sustained for two years.
- Over 15% monthly, usually a signal the timeline is wrong rather than the ambition.
The T2D3 pattern, triple, triple, double, double, double, is the shape most venture-scale SaaS companies are measured against on the way from $1M to $100M ARR. It works out to roughly 9-10% monthly in the tripling years.
Questions
Why is the required rate higher than I expected?
Because growth compounds. Each month's target is a percentage of a larger base, so the absolute amount you must add rises every month even though the rate stays flat.
What is T2D3?
Triple, triple, double, double, double, the growth pattern venture-backed SaaS companies are commonly benchmarked against from roughly $1M to $100M ARR. It implies about 9-10% monthly growth during the tripling years.
The customer count assumes flat ARPA, is that realistic?
It is a floor, not a forecast. Most companies raise ARPA as they move upmarket, which reduces the customer count needed. Treat the number here as the requirement if nothing else changes.
Should I plan linearly instead?
No, but you should sanity-check against your sales capacity. Compounding targets assume you can add capacity as fast as the model adds revenue, which is usually the binding constraint.